Final Project
The final project is a memo (less than 10 pages) centered on a key question in international finance. Specific case studies centered on central banks / countries that the participants know, or love (or both) are strongly encouraged. Each topic covered in the class (e.g., borrowing in a foreign currency, or hedging, or transaction risk, etc.) can be studied in detail through the example of a specific central bank/firm/country/policy.
the topic that the prof review and agree on is Indonesia – PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
here is our approval proposal:
1. Country & Firm: Indonesia – PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, the national flag carrier and one of the most significant State Owned Enterprises financial crisis cases in recent Indonesian history.
2. Research Question: How did the structural mismatch between USD-denominated costs and IDR-denominated revenues create a fatal foreign exchange exposure for Garuda Indonesia and what forward, swap, or option-based hedging strategy could have altered the firm’s path to insolvency?
3. Analytical Approach: We will build an original dataset extracted from Garuda’s annual reports (20162021) to quantify transaction, translation, and competition FX exposure, moving from macro IDR/USD dynamics to firm-level analysis, in line with the micro-level approach you encouraged in class.
4. Core Contribution: We will run a simple “what if” simulation had Garuda hedged 5075% of its USD exposure from 2018, would the cost of hedging have been lower than the eventual Rp 142 trillion restructuring cost? This will be the central argument of our memo.
5. Data Viability: All key data sources are publicly accessible. Garuda’s annual reports via IDX, court documents, IDR/USD historical rates from Bank Indonesia (JISDOR) and FRED, and FX forward curves and implied volatility via the MIT Library Bloomberg Terminal.
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